On Sept. 9, President Trump told reporters that "right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward." On Wednesday, the day after Democrats won Congress, Brent crude fell about 9% to under $95 a barrel. AAA's national gas average moved 2.5 cents. The crude drop is real, the pump lags it, and diesel is still above $6.
What did Trump say in September, and what did oil do Wednesday?
The quote comes from an AP report by Aamer Madhani on remarks to reporters before a Dallas trip. In the same exchange he said, "I think it's going to take a little bit longer than the midterm." AP did not name the reporters, and I read it through a syndicated copy. That day Brent had passed $100 for the first time since July and AAA had regular gas at $4.22.
Wednesday's move is documented in OilPrice.com's market report. It has Brent down $8.94, or 8.6%, to $94.66 at 1:06 p.m. Eastern, the lowest since Sept. 4, with U.S. crude (WTI) down $8.01 to $88.08. The National reports both benchmarks are down more than 15% on the week. Intraday figures differ a little between outlets, so treat the exact cents as approximate.
Why did oil fall?
OilPrice.com says traders priced in an end to the Iran war after the White House tied Republican losses to the conflict. Iran International reports Vice President Vance wrote on X that "the reason we lost is the war," and that Trump told Fox News voters were reacting to gasoline prices, not the war itself. I could not open the Fox interview or Vance's post, so those words are as that outlet reports them.
The relief is not settled. OilPrice.com reports that Trump told the Financial Times he had no immediate plans to strike Iran, but also that prices partly recovered after an Iranian official dismissed reports of talks progress. Enverus analyst Carl Larry warned escalation could come before any resolution. The National adds that Iran's supreme leader reportedly called anyone expecting a U.S. policy shift after the midterms "gravely mistaken."
A U.S. Navy aircraft carrier and a second warship transit the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint behind much of this year's oil price spike. Official U.S. Navy imagery via Wikimedia Commons, public domain. Undated file photo.
Did gas prices drop with it?
A little. AAA's national average page showed regular at $4.1239 on Wednesday, against $4.1493 Tuesday, $4.2471 a week ago, $4.3697 a month ago and $3.0528 a year ago. That is 2.5 cents in a day, 12.3 cents in a week, and still $1.07 above last November.
The Energy Information Administration's weekly survey put regular at $4.153 for the week of Nov. 2. Among the weeks its table lists since mid-September, the high was $4.478 on Sept. 21, so pump prices had already slipped about 32 cents before this week's crude drop.
Official record
AAA national average, regular unleaded, as listed Nov. 4, 2026 (gasprices.aaa.com), and EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update, week of Nov. 2, released Nov. 3 (eia.gov).
AAA: Today $4.1239, yesterday $4.1493, week ago $4.2471, month ago $4.3697, year ago $3.0528.
EIA: U.S. regular gasoline $4.153 per gallon, on-highway diesel $6.292 per gallon.
I read both pages through a text extraction, so these are table values rather than quoted sentences. Check the live pages, which update daily and weekly.
How much could a $9 crude drop be worth at the pump?
A barrel holds 42 gallons, so $8.94 a barrel is about 21 cents a gallon of crude cost. That is my own arithmetic, not an EIA forecast. EIA calls crude "the largest component of the retail price of gasoline" and says its share "varies over time and across regions." Refining, distribution and taxes do not fall with it, and station prices follow wholesale costs on their own timing. Read 21 cents as a ceiling for the one-day move, not a promise for next week.
A tanker takes on crude at Iraq's Al Basrah Oil Terminal in the Persian Gulf. U.S. Navy photo via Wikimedia Commons, public domain. File photo from 2005.
What about diesel?
Diesel is the stubborn one. EIA has on-highway diesel at $6.292 for the week of Nov. 2. OilPrice.com says diesel is above $6.50, without naming which survey it used, and says EIA distillate stocks fell 3.6 million barrels last week to 13% below the five-year average. Trucks and farm equipment run on diesel, so it is the number to watch if this week's oil drop is going to show up anywhere besides the gas station sign.
What this does not prove
One day of crude trading is not a trend, and it is not the Consumer Price Index. Trump's September line about oil held up for one day: crude fell right after the election. The pump is moving far more slowly, and whether either keeps falling depends on whether the Iran talks hold, which no price chart can answer yet.
Header photo: a gasoline price sign photographed Sept. 26, 2026, listed on Commons as Eugene, Oregon. Prices at this one station ($4.99 unleaded) are not the national average. Photo: Rick Obst via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0. Cropped.
