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Donald Trump's Polling Numbers Plummet With Independents

Donald Trump's Polling Numbers Plummet With Independents

Donald Trump's polling among independent voters is tumbling ahead of the presidential election, according to a new poll.

In March, it was confirmed that Democratic incumbent Biden will face the Republican former president in November, with both winning enough delegates to secure their respective parties' presidential nomination, teeing up a 2020 White House rematch.


Since then, a number of polls have sought to predict the result of the presidential election. Some have suggested Biden is in the lead, while others have predicted Trump will be the victor. In general, though, the polls show the candidates are neck and neck—and with seven months until voters go to the polls, things are likely to change.

A crucial body of voters that the pair will need to court is independents. But, according to a Marist National Poll of 1,192 registered voters, Trump may find this difficult as his support among independents has declined from 38 percent in early April to 30 percent in a multi-candidate field that includes Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West and Jill Stein. Biden has increased his share from 33 percent to 34 percent among independents, and Kennedy's support among independents has increased to 27 percent from 21 percent.

Donald Trump
Donald Trump speaks to the media at Manhattan Criminal Court on April 22, 2024, in New York City. The proportion of independents who said they would vote for the former president is declining. PHOTO BY VICTOR J. BLUE - POOL/GETTY IMAGES

When two candidates are offered, Trump and Biden are tied among independents and both have 49 percent of the vote. But in the previous Marist National Poll, Trump had a 7 percentage point lead over Biden among this demographic with 52 percent to Biden's 45 percent.


The poll, which was conducted from April 16 to April 18, also found that 51 percent of those surveyed would vote for Biden, while 48 percent would vote for Trump. This shows Biden narrowly increasing his lead. Earlier this month, the pollsters put Biden on 50 percent of the vote to Trump's 48 percent.

However, as the poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points, the pair are statistically tied.


According to a Public Opinion Strategies poll of 1,000 people for NBC News, the Democratic incumbent is ahead of his Republican challenger by 9 points among people who voted in the 2020 general election and 2022 midterm elections.

However, the poll, conducted between April 12 and April 16, also found that 46 percent of overall respondents would vote for Trump in the presidential election, while 44 percent would vote for Biden when only offered the choice of these two candidates. The margin of error is +/- 3.10 percent.

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