Texas Republicans start early voting today in a Senate race that CBS News calls "essentially tied." The CBS News/YouGov poll, taken October 8 to 16, has Democrat James Talarico at 51 percent and Republican Ken Paxton at 49 among likely voters, well inside the margin of error. The number that should worry Paxton's side sits deeper in the crosstabs: only 23 percent of his own voters say they are backing him mainly because they like him.
Is the Texas Senate race really tied?
CBS surveyed 1,492 registered Texas voters, with a margin of error of 3.4 points for registered voters and 3.5 for likely voters. Among likely voters, including those leaning one way, Talarico gets 51 and Paxton 49. Nobody else gets so much as a rounded 1 percent.
It is not a one-off. A Fox News poll of 881 likely Texas voters, conducted September 24 to 28, landed on the same 51 to 49 split, per FOX 4 in Dallas-Fort Worth. Two pollsters, about two weeks apart, one coin flip. Any headline that calls this a Democratic lead is reading a two-point gap that both polls say is noise.
Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico, pictured at a January 2025 press conference at the Texas Capitol. Photo: Antonioaesparza, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.
Why do only 23 percent of Paxton voters say they like him?
CBS asked each candidate's voters for their main reason. Among Talarico's, 48 percent said they like him, 22 percent said he is the Democratic nominee, and 30 percent said mainly to oppose Paxton. Among Paxton's, 23 percent said they like him, 41 percent said he is the Republican nominee, and 36 percent said mainly to oppose Talarico.
The same poll asked about Donald Trump's endorsement of Paxton. For 11 percent of Paxton voters it is "a big reason." For 34 percent it is "one of many reasons." For 55 percent it is not a reason at all. CBS also found 59 percent of likely voters saying Paxton lacks the right personal character to serve in the Senate, against 46 percent who said that about Talarico.
Read that plainly. Republican voters are showing up for the team and against the other guy, which is a legitimate way to win in Texas. It also means the vote is only as solid as the dislike of the opponent.
Official record
CBS News Poll, "Registered Voters in Texas," conducted by YouGov, October 8 to 16, 2026. Full toplines and crosstabs, 39 pages.
Question 9, among likely voters voting for or leaning toward Paxton: "Mainly because I like Ken Paxton," 23%; "Mainly because Ken Paxton is the Republican nominee," 41%; "Mainly to oppose James Talarico," 36%. - CBS News/YouGov toplines
Read or download the full 39-page poll document (PDF) · view CBS's write-up
Where does Paxton still hold an edge?
Plenty of places. Texans back the administration's deportation program 54 to 46, and CBS says support runs higher in Texas than in its latest national poll. Governor Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 52 to 48 among likely voters, three points better than Paxton's 49 on the same ballot. And 40 percent say their Senate vote is not about Trump either way, compared with 34 percent who say it is to oppose him and 26 percent to support him.
CBS also reports that nearly half of voters call Talarico "very liberal," and those voters go for Paxton. In the toplines, 44 percent pick "very liberal" and another 27 percent "somewhat liberal."
The headwind is the grocery bill. Cost of living is the top Senate issue at 56 percent, with immigration and the border second at 23. Ninety-one percent say the military conflict with Iran is pushing oil and gas prices higher, 60 percent "a lot." Among voters hurt by prices, CBS says, Talarico has a sizable lead.
The Texas State Capitol in Austin. Photo: Daniel Mayer, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0.
Who shows up between now and November 3?
Early voting runs today through October 30, and the Texas Secretary of State's office reports a record 19,041,684 registered voters. Mail-ballot applications must be received by October 23, and voters should bring one of the accepted photo IDs.
Here is the line in the CBS crosstabs that matters most. Asked whether they will vote, 87 percent of Democrats say they "definitely" will. Among Republicans it is 76 percent, with another 17 percent saying "probably." Independents sit at 77. CBS itself says Talarico is helped by more Democrats saying they will definitely vote, and that "if more Republicans decide to vote, it could certainly change."
That is an 11-point certainty gap in a race decided by two. Texas Republicans have a two-week window to close it, and the voters who answered "probably" are the ones who will settle this Senate seat.
Top photo: Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton speaking at AmericaFest 2025. Photo: Gage Skidmore, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.
